US equities ended the week on a mixed note, the SPX printing 3310, but settling +1pts to 3340, which made for a net weekly decline of -85pts (2.5%). Meanwhile, WTIC settled +3cents (0.1%) to $37.33, which made for a net weekly decline of -$2.44 (6.1%).
sp’weekly1b
WTIC weekly
Summary
sp: A second consecutive net weekly decline, with a lower high and lower low, as last week’s break of s/t rising trend was confirmed. Weekly momentum continues to weaken, and at the current rate, will turn negative week commencing Sept’21st, notably just after OPEX.
Bears need a sustained break under the weekly 10MA – currently 3329, to offer a test of major support of the monthly 10MA, currently at 3116, where the 200dma is also near.
—
WTIC: oil settled the day broadly flat, but that still made for a rather severe net weekly decline, having printed a multi-month low of $36.13. Major support 32/30 appears set to be hit.
—
Dear Subscriber
Some perspective… SPX m1b
We’re only eight trading days into the month, and whilst the market did break a new historic high of 3588, we’ve already come close to taking out the August low of 3284. If September settles <3300, and certainly, if <3284, it would merit the klaxons for October, which can often be a problematic month, not least ahead of an election.
Something to keep in mind…
sp’daily3 – fib’ retraces
If the 3300s are lost – as seems probable, I would note the 50% retrace at 2889. I would fully accept that is a long way down, and it would arguably require some ‘bad news’. Further, any monthly settlement much below 3100 would break the m/t bullish trend, and bode more problematic than just the 2800s.
—
Meanwhile, over at Print Central…
The latest update showed a net weekly change of -$6.9bn vs +27.1 prior, taking the balance sheet to $7.011trn. Whilst the recent changes are all ‘noise’, I will continue to highlight the fed, as ‘all those trillions’ do merit regular reflection.
Further US Govt’ stimulus can be expected, as the fed are ready and waiting to buy another trillion or more of US t-bonds. The only issue is whether we see NIRP, or whether Mr inflation makes an appearance in 2021. For now, there is no sign of the latter, and thus… no rate hikes can be expected, which isn’t going to help the US banks, not least Wells Fargo.
—
Yours truly is going to try to take it lighter this weekend. After last weekend’s renaming, I’m still pretty exhausted.
However, with personal project’1 complete, next up is desktop’2… for web streaming. I’ll open those boxes sooner or later, and get setup for some weekend ‘shows’, preferably before the election.
As ever, feel free to message me via Disqus or email.
Sincerely, have a restful weekend, and goodnight from London
yours… Philip
—
The weekend post will appear Sat’12pm EDT @ https://tradingsunset.blogspot.com, and will detail the US equity indexes (monthly candle charts).