It was a green Thursday in equity land, the SPX settling +0.6% to 4299. Meanwhile, WTIC settled -$1.97 (2.1%) to $91.71.
sp’weekly1b
WTIC daily
Summary
SPX: as things are, we’re net lower for the week by -20pts (0.5%). Momentum is still ticking lower with each week, and is an increasing restraint on ALL bounces.
WTIC: oil printed (if overnight) a new cycle high of $95.03, but cooling back to the $91s. Today’s perform’ was slightly worse, relative to the positive equity market, and the weaker dollar. Having printed the $95s, its not a stretch to expect psy’ $100 within the very near term.
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Looking ahead
Friday will see Pers’ income/spending, PCE, Intl’ trade,
Earnings: CCL
Event: As Friday Sept’29th is the last trading day of the month and Q3, I’d expect very dynamic price action on high vol’.
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Final note
We’re in the timeline when Dore addressed the UN security council.
I’ve no idea how this came to happening, but I kinda like it.
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Waving the white flag
So… yesterday afternoon I chased lower, something I regularly note I do NOT like doing. This morning’s early price action looked lousy for the bears, and I bailed with the SPX -2pts.
My crash position – SPY Oct’3rd $400 PUTS, I salvaged 13cents, having bought for 22. Not great, but its better than the 8 cents I see as of today’s close. By 4pm next Tuesday, they’ll surely be printing 0 cents.
There is a time to simply wave the white flag, accept that the market has turned, and exit a trade.
I’ll take a 30% loss, rather than a 100% loss, and continue to straight-talk to YOU, as you deserve.
So… now I’m on the sidelines, and it appears we’ll battle upward to 4370/4400s next week. A ‘turnaround Tuesday’ perhaps?
Ohh, and just keep this in mind…
With one trading day left of the month, the SPX is -207pts (4.6%). Momentum is offering a clear rollover.
The August ‘hanging man’ candle played out.
My guess is that we did put in a m/t high from July 27th of 4607.
The setup for Oct’ leans bearish.
Basic target would be psy’ 4K, which would tag/fill five downside gaps, leaving one other in the 3600/3500s.
There are plenty of crash callers out there, although if we stair step lower, it can’t be called a crash, even if we’re printing the 3500/3600s by Halloween.
I’m net higher for the week, and month. Being on the sidelines into the weekend will make for considerably better sleep.
Goodnight from London