Good morning. US equity futures are very significantly lower, SPX -50pts, we’re set to open at 3376. USD is +0.6% in the DXY 93.27s. The precious metals are significantly lower, Gold -$16 (printing $1916s), with Silver -1.1%. WTIC is -5.2% in the $37s (printing $36.96).
sp’60min
Summary
Last week ended on a mixed note, as whilst the market printed 3349, there was a very powerful latter day recovery, settling at 3426.
S/t momentum is on the low side, and whilst we’re set to open significantly lower, the market will be highly inclined to reverse back upward.
For the next bounce… bears should be seeking any kind of lower high (<3855, preferably 3490/3450), whilst bulls should be desperate to just push straight up. A new historic high, would make last Thurs/Friday as just a ‘sporadic washout’. The weekly candles would argue against the latter.
On balance, I’d look for the 50dma to be tested, and that will be in the low 3300s across the next two weeks.
re: Dollar. Further upside sure isn’t helping commodities, not least energy and the precious metals.
From a trading perspective, those wanting to short, the more cautious are going to have to wait for s/t oversold conditions to burn off, and that might take a few days. I could understand the bolder bulls appearing at some point today, with high threat of an upside reversal, especially from 11am onward.
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Early movers
AAPL -4.1%
AMD -4.3%
AMZN -3.3%
BA -2.6%, Dreamliner ‘problems’
BAC -0.5%
BCS -4.0%, weak UK banks
CCL -2.8%
DB -3.3%, weak EU banks
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DIS +0.9%, Mulan, and general ‘movie release’ chatter.
ETSY +1.8%
FB -3.4%
FCX -0.4%, with copper -1cent to $3.04
GDX -1.9%
GOLD -1.3%
GM +9.1%, teaming up with NKLA
INTC -1.1%
M -1.6%, m/t horror
MRNA -6.8%
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MSFT -3.0%.
Any daily settlement under the 50dma, would merit main market alarm bells. Momentum turned negative on Friday.
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MU -2.8%
NEM -1.3%, lower gold
NFLX -3.3%
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NKLA +45.0% (not a typo!) in the $51s, teaming up with GM, as the Nikola ‘Badger’ to be made by General Motors.
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NVAX -6.6%
NVDA -5.7%
PAAS -1.4%, lower silver
PFE +0.4%, resilient healthcare
PTON +3.2%, new products
PYPL -3.0%
RCL -1.5%
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RIG -6.0%, positive court ruling, but Transocean remains on life support, and can’t be expected to survive in its current form.
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SPCE +2.5%, next Virgin Galactic flight Oct’22
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SPOT -3.7% in the $239s
Spotify is reflective of over-stretched tech. Red gap looks pretty easy.
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SQ -5.7%
TSLA -14.1%, no SPX inclusion!
TLT +0.6%, as yields cool
TWTR -1.6%
UAL -1.1%
UBER -1.8%
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VIX +14% in the 35s
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VZ +0.8%, resilient Dow components
WFC -1.0%, m/t horror, lower yields aren’t helping.
WORK -1.6%, earnings Tues’ AH
WPM -1.7%, lower silver
WYNN -2.5%
XOM -1.1%, lower oil
ZM -3.8%, s/t hysteria continues to erode
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Overnight markets
Asian markets were moderately higher, whilst European markets are leaning weak…
Japan: +0.8% at 23274
China: +0.7% at 3316
Germany: currently -1.0% at 12974
UK: currently -0.4% at 5914
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Have a good Tuesday